Saturday, June 27, 2009

Religious Wars in the Balkans


All of this really began in 1991 when Yugoslavia began to break up and the Croatian republic declared independence. The response to all of this by the West was defined in large part by Germany, and Germany's response was defined in large part by the Catholic connection to Croatia. The German government fell under heavy pressure by Catholic media, Catholic political groups, and especially leaders in largely Catholic Bavaria. Media coverage was very one-sided, and this helped shaped public opinion in favor of the Croatians against the Serbians, even though both sides engaged in the same sorts of atrocities. The Vatican also played a key role as the Pope declared Croatia to be the "rampart of [Western] Christianity" and moved to recognized it even before the European Union, which was itself under pressure from Germany.

On the other side, there was virtually unanimous rallying of the Eastern Orthodox world behind Serbia and against Muslim Bosnia and Catholic Croatia. This situation continues even today and is vital in understanding how political alliances are playing out in the current crisis. Russian nationalists, military officers, parliamentarians and Orthodox church leaders have been very outspoken in their unwavering support for Serbia and Serbian interests, attacking Bosnian Muslim fundamentalists and the Western imperialism behind Croatia. Russian leaders have been as quick to ignore Serbian atrocities and lies as Western European leaders were to ignore Croatian atrocities and lies. Being on the side of "right" wasn't nearly as important as aiding religious kin and members of the same "civilization."


Orthodox Reactions

Ignoring this would prevent any sort of appreciation of what is happening in Greece and Russia. Protestors throughout Greece have been aiming their anger at NATO, and especially at the American embassy in Athens. Greek newspapers have run editorial cartoons depicting President Clinton as Nazi leader Adolf Hitler and many headlines have labeled NATO pilots as murderers. All of this would be shocking and unexpected in any other NATO ally. Fortunately, Greek leaders are not yet ready to follow the rest of their citizens in denouncing NATO actions and possibly withdrawing from the alliance. More cautious and more cognizant of their treaty obligations, they have urged an end to the airstrikes and urged a resumption to negotiations. Unsurprisingly, NATO has not made use of any military bases in Greece despite their close proximity to targets in Serbia and Kosovo.

None of this is a recent political development. Throughout the Bosnian war, Greece was an active, if covert, supporter of Serbian interests. Shipments of food, chemicals, computers, and other important goods blocked by the embargo found their way from Greece into Serbia through Macedonia, with comparable amounts of embargoed Serbian oil flowing right back out. In 1994, Greek prime minister Andreas Papandreou voiced his support for the Orthodox connection to Serbia and publicly attacked the Vatican, Germany and the European Union for their hasty diplomatic recognition of Slovenia and Croatia in 1991. Greece's religious ties to the Orthodox world are coming into serious conflict with their economic and military ties to Western Christian Europe. Which will win in the end?


Russian Roulette

By far the worst reaction to NATO airstrikes outside of Serbia itself has been in Russia. Since the war in Bosnia, Serbian and Russian nationalists have worked closely together in an effort to oppose any Western "new world order." Cooperation here is not based upon former communist associations, but instead upon ancient religious and cultural commonalities. This also isn't an effort by a few powerful political figures looking for good press - in fact, this sort of religio-ethnic bonding is supported by large numbers of citizens. Nationalist leaders in Russia succeeded in recruiting many young men "in the cause of Slavic brotherhood" just as Croatian Defense Forces were augmented by the appearance of perhaps thousands of volunteers from Western Europe and other countries. Interestingly, many of the volunteers from Western Europe were fascists and neo-nazis, looking to gain combat experience.

Russian aid to the Serbian cause is having a significant impact upon both Kosovo separatists and now upon NATO forces. In 1993 Russian military and intelligence organizations sold at least $300 million worth of T-55 tanks, antimissile missiles and anti-aircraft missiles to the Serbs. It is not at all unlikely that one of those missiles, sold to Serbia in the name of Slavic brotherhood, was responsible for shooting down the American F-117A stealth fighter. Russian military technicians have reportedly been in Serbia operating the equipment and training Serbians.

In the current crisis, Russia has recalled its ambassador to NATO, expelled two NATO representatives and has promised to send undefined "humanitarian aid" to Serbia. Other issues have been seriously hurt, with the START II strategic arms reduction treaty considered now dead in parliament again. The Russian Navy in the Barents Sea has suddenly gone on "exercises," and military experts in Russia have started feasibility studies on the redeployment of tactical and strategic bombers into Belarus. Perhaps no actual military action against NATO is planned, but Russia isn't flexing its military muscle for no reason. They are expressing their solidarity with Serbia - a solidarity which has the potential of turning deadly. There may already be a beginning to this with one person in Russia firing shots at the American embassy and attempting to fire grenades as well.


America's Role

The role of America in all of this is complicated and interesting. Historically, the United States is allied with Western Europe. Culturally, America is tied with what Huntington calls "Western Christian" civilization. But rhetorically, if not practically, America supported the Bosnian Muslims in their conflict with the Christian Croats and Orthodox Serbs. America made no serious efforts to get European powers to also support the Bosnian Muslims in any serious way, but they did allow Saudi Arabia and even Iran to ship in arms, and in 1994 America stopped supporting the arms embargo altogether. This could have long-term political consequences for Europe if Bosnia turns fundamentalist like Iran.

Why did America break with traditional civilization allies? There are a wide variety of possible explanations. Perhaps it was an attempt to reduce the influence of Iran in an unstable region of Europe. Perhaps it was due to pressure from Muslim allies like Turkey and Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, Americans like to identify with underdogs and the "forces of good" against the "forces of evil," whoever they may be. Serbian atrocities first against Bosnian Muslims and later against Kosovo Albanians have allowed Americans to label them as the "bad guys" with very little difficulty. Muslim and Albanian crimes are just as quickly ignored.

In the current crisis, we find that America is actually joined by European allies in fighting against Eastern Orthodox people and on behalf of the Kosavar Muslims. A major reason why America is not alone in this as it was with Bosnia is probably that there are no Western Christian nations which are "on the wrong side." But taking sides against a more similar civilization (Serbia) with a less similar civilization (Kosovo) in this way is a dangerous game. Even Russian moderates have declared that their relationship with America "will never return" to what it was. How this will affect America and NATO in the long term is difficult to predict. Russia and other Orthodox countries will not forget. But many Muslim countries like Iran would never consider appreciating the NATO efforts.

Religion is playing a much larger role here than most people seem to realize. Those who ignore this basic fact will never be able to get a firm grasp on what is happening, much less figure a way out of it all. Only by acknowledging the religious morass which all sides are caught in and attempting to find a solution which works within the boundaries set by religion and culture will we achieve any sort of lasting, if shaky, peace.